Free Audio Book : Destined for War, By Graham Allison

The likelihood of a war with China is far greater than commonly believed. Thucydides, the Greek historian, identified a single cause when Athens went to war with Sparta some 2,500 years ago: the rise of a power threatening to displace the ruling one. Graham Allison, the esteemed scholar from Harvard, explains that in the past 500 years, great powers have found themselves ensnared in what he calls "Thucydides's Trap" sixteen times. Catastrophic outcomes have occurred in twelve of these sixteen instances, ranging from conflicts between France and the Habsburgs in the sixteenth century to the two world wars of the twentieth century. Today, similar structural forces propel China and the United States toward a potential catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude, despite both sides insisting that such a war could never transpire.

In his book "Destined for War," Allison draws parallels between the U.S.-China conflict and the closest historical precedent: World War I. During that time, a rising Germany threatened the supremacy of the British Empire. He outlines several scenarios in which the United States and China could, against their intentions and better judgment, slide into a similar conflict. However, he also examines rare instances when clashing powers managed to avert disaster. Could our current standoff be one of those exceptions? Allison's answer becomes essential reading not only for our present age but also for the generations to come.